Politics 2015: understanding the outcome

“Hello young man, do you know we’ve soon got an election coming up?”

Ha, thought I, he obviously was unaware of the type of company of I worked for.

“I am.” I said.

“Well can I ask, will you be voting for UKIP? There are many young people like you now joining our party.”

Oh my goodness, I thought. I am being cajoled/ harassed into voting UKIP by a canvasser using nudge theory, on my own doorstep!

“I’m not.” I said, with my arms folded. “I’m really not quite sure why voting for UKIP would be in my interest, indeed for the rest of the country.”

I’ll be honest, I’ve normally got a lot of time for people who go knocking on doors to talk about politics. 

Yes, it’s quite self-serving i.e. they’re just looking for voter intention and data for their own records, but it is quite a task to knock on the majority of doors in a constituency and ask what people care about and dislike.

“Well...” said the man.

If I was guessing, he was in his late sixties. He wore a tweed jacket, had slightly unkempt grey hair, merrily rotund. Overall quite friendly.

“It’s in all our interest because we no longer have control of our borders, we no longer have control to make our own rules. It’s all in done in Brussels now you see.”

Wow, I thought, he’s gone straight for the nuclear argument. He didn’t even ask me how long I’d lived here, where I worked or if I had any particular concerns about the local area.

“So, what do you suggest?” I retorted. “We pull out entirely? I’m all for reforming the place, very much so, but I’ve yet to hear how the transition period would work.”

Then came the numbers. The costs. The statistics. The data.

In the end, it was a case of agreeing to disagree, but here was a UKIP man on our doorstep. That was pretty unheard of in Harrogate. I remember once upon a time seeing them drive around the town centre with a megaphone attached to their car, reeling off number after number. This was in the years after The Referendum Party, when UKIP weren’t even considered to be on the fringes, but quite extreme. Now we’re in a world where they have the UK’s biggest representation within the EU Parliament and are considered to be ‘mainstream’. Perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised by his appearance.

Yet, we’re still adjusting to it all. The left look on in glee as the right splinters and the Conservatives are dragged between their traditional base and the election winning centre ground, whereas the right are savouring the shambolic state of centre left politics led by Ed Miliband and his day-to-day issues. While the Lib Dems may have a place in Government after the next election, who’s not to say that power may lie from within the clutches of either Nigel Farage or the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon, if not in this election, then perhaps 2020.

The leaders' debate 2010.

There are no absolute truths in politics and the shape of the 2015 General election is becoming very interesting and completely unexplainable. A recent poll now puts the Conservatives ahead of the Labour Party by three points, but even in an economic recovery can we expect a Tory majority? Though some cruelly argue that a corpse could have done better against Gordon Brown in the 2010 election, is it likely that Conservatives will be able to maintain all their current seats, as well as gain the 40 or so more needed to gain a majority? The polls suggest it is unlikely.

The loyalty towards Labour’s Ed Miliband appears hollow and more importantly do voters have a real idea of what a Labour-led government would do with almost six months to go? Even the so-called 35% strategy may be pushing it at this rate.

Then there are the Lib Dems. Notoriously entrenched in the seats they hold and formidable grassroots campaigners, another ‘unknown unknown’ in this election is to whether they will be able to hold on to as many seats they forecast. Opinion polls before the 2010 election gave them a healthy 23%, yet they have slumped on average to this Parliament to a mere 7%. Will the public punish them for being part of the Government? Or will they claw on and fight?

The new SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon

Politicians and commentators often hint at the suggestion that when a General Election comes round and things ultimately get serious, people always revert to the mainstream parties. There is an historic precedence to this and who can disagree with facts. Yet, we don’t have that certainty and politicians are hesitant to jump to a conclusion that there will be a regression to the mean. Call it an end to ‘three party politics’ or as the UKIP MP Douglas Carswell calls it ‘iDemocracy’, times are changing.

What is interesting to see is that the emergence of UKIP and SNP and their subsequent rise is not simply down to the state of affairs from the established parties or a mood of anti-Westminster. Both SNP and UKIP, have successfully used a mixture of old and new campaigning techniques, along with a charismatic and likeable leader, to not only to get themselves recognised, but have a voice at the table. The question for the long-term is whether their campaigning can bring in support, money, votes and ultimately policies.

I did not go away and vote UKIP in the European elections. Yet, I went away and told numerous people that I spoke to one of their campaigners. Politics works in funny ways and until May 7 and the counting thereafter, we may only really have an idea then to what new politics really is.

UKIP - A party without real policy?

UKIP leader Nigel Farage’s confirmation that he will be standing as a candidate in the Kent seat of Thanet South came as no surprise for those who follow the travails of the UK’s fourth party. In a week, where Mayor of London Boris Johnson confirmed that he too was looking for a seat ahead of the 2015 election, the House of Commons may become a more colourful place if the votes go the way of these two gents next year.

Yet, while the papers may cover firstly where Boris may stand and secondly, whether he will make a serious stand for the leadership post-2015, what of UKIP and has their bubble burst since the European elections? No doubt, much of the party’s success has come off the back of general antipathy towards the three main parties, but many commentators have said that May 2014 will be the party’s apex.

Will Farage finally be elected in Westminster? (Spectator picture)

Indeed, some point that the momentum was lost when the charismatic Farage decided not to stand in the seat of Newark, following the resignation of Conservative MP Patrick Mercer. In the following months, the UKIP leader has reshuffled his pack and arguably strengthened his frontbench with the appointments of Patrick O’Flynn and Steven Woolfe. Yet, the party remains relatively quiet in the press. After sustained attacks on party candidates in the run up to the EU vote, UKIP has dropped off the radar and most publicity has dissipated.

This is partly down to the fact that both Parliaments in Westminster and Brussels are in recess. Additionally, this UKIP are now regrouping and setting their strategy for 2015. Farage’s announcement is the first in this news cycle, but the second is the fact that the party is planning to host its party conference at Doncaster racecourse. Doncaster’s MP being the Labour leader Ed Miliband.

Polling from Conservative donor Lord Ashcroft continues to show that UKIP voters continue to affect the overall performance and possibility of a Conservative majority, but it is and should be alarming to Labour MPs too. While their policy agenda is by no means concrete and partly feeds off the uncertainties of voters, as well as the general backlash to incumbent parties, UKIP is able to tap into the concerns of what we may call traditional Labour voters. White working class voters, who feel politicians have ignored their concerns on immigration, welfare and jobs. UKIP is having an impact in Northern communities where Conservatives gave up the ghost a long time ago.

So with these announcements, should we expect much come May? There remain serious questions to whether UKIP has the concentration and funding to sustain support across 650 seats. Nigel Farage says the party will be putting candidates in every seat, but is this a sensible idea? Surely the leader would be best advised targeting particular seats and finally putting UKIP’s flag in the likes of Kent, Essex, Rotherham, Portsmouth or Boston? There remains a question also of follow through. Will those voters who ticked the UKIP box last May, make the same decision come the General Election? By no means can the three main parties sit back and take this attitude, the Conservatives must continue to knock-on doors and reiterate their own message and the holes in the UKIP message too. It would be foolish to simply think that voters will revert back accordingly.

Naturally the question about the UKIP is whether they are serious political force? Are they a party full of interesting ideas that could change the economic fortunes of Britons up and down the country? Or are they simply a group of basket cases, who will continue to give the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour Party a bloody nose at by-elections? The scrutiny will continue to grow and when the majority of voters come to decide a month before the polls, the question is whether UKIP’s lack of credibility shines through or if they really are a party they can trust. 

I’ve just got to get a message to UKIP: what is your communications strategy?

If you were to ask the British public who they think the most recognisable British politician was in this country, then I’d guess there would be an argument between Prime Minister David Cameron and Mayor of London Boris Johnson. You may agree or disagree, or indeed wonder where the inimitable, tweed wearing, lager-chugging UKIP leader Nigel Farage would place in such a poll.

Farage is known to like a cigarette and tipple

Beyond the YouTube videos of his performances in the European Parliament and appearances on Question Time, the UKIP leader has made a name for himself in recent years. From taking his party to a second place finish in the 2009 European elections and a near-victory in the Eastleigh by-election in 2013, Farage’s star continues to rise. Despite press criticism about holding an offshore account in the Isle of Man as well as an incident in an Edinburgh pub, Farage currently upholds the notion of being the Teflon politician. Beyond Boris, it’s hard to think of anyone as popular.

However; while the polls may position UKIP well ahead of this year’s European elections and next year’s General Election, there remain questions about UKIP’s party organisation, as well as its ability to create a coherent communications strategy.

Reports of former BNP members standing as UKIP candidates as well as MEP Godfrey Bloom getting into hot water over his ‘sluts’ comments have not only put the party on the front pages for entirely the wrong reasons, it has highlighted the weakness in its communications and legitimacy as a new player.

Farage remains an asset, yet at the same time, his dominance highlights the party’s weakness. When he stood down briefly as party leader in 2009 to be replaced by Lord Pearson, the party failed to generate a coherent message in the Westminster elections and win any seats. Since his re-election, the party has been quick to put forward the likes of Paul Nuttall, Gerrard Batten and Diane James as spokespeople, partly to cover the media demands for comment, but also to show the party is more than one person. At the start of the year, Daily Express lead writer Patrick O’Flynn confirmed that he would not only be standing as an MEP, but is to become its director of communications.

O’Flynn’s experience and pedigree may be welcomed by party members but does it really resolve anything in the long term? The Express may sympathise with many of the party’s ideas, but can it be transposed elsewhere? Will he be able to co-ordinate a clear structure and effective strategy beyond the EU elections and into 2015?

The problem so far has been that greater success has led to greater scrutiny. Voters may like the alternative approach of the party and see them as a vehicle to protest against the traditional big three, but what will happen when they see their abysmal voting records in Brussels and Strasbourg. Or ask what their policies are beyond Europe and immigration?

Questions will have to be asked whether politically UKIP’s poll ratings can be sustained and whether ultimately it can put up a decent challenge in Westminster. It does not mean that the London-elite should brush UKIP off. It would be stupid and frankly naïve. Politicians should focus on their own policies before they make sweeping statements about UKIP.

If O’Flynn and Farage have one target to make real noise, it won’t just be winning the European elections in May, it will be placing Farage in the leaders’ debates before 2015. If they can do that, then my word, how it could reshape the political landscape.